SC²S Colloquium - January 21, 2015

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Date: January 21, 2014
Room: 02.07.023
Time: 3:00 pm, s.t.
Invited by: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Michael Bader

Christoph Scheingraber: Uncertainty Analysis for the Modelling of Earthquake Risk under Consideration of a Single-Risk Functionality

Seismic risk assessment is comprised of three distinct parts: hazard, vulnerability and exposure. The vulnerability part involves modelling the damage of a building stock as a function of ground motion. In particular for single-risk-policies, considerable uncertainty arises in the evaluation of potential losses. In this case, certain assumptions that simplify the treatment of aggregated risk can not be made. This thesis is concerned with developing a new approach to process available loss data. It aims at improving quantification and modelling of uncertainties. Although the so-called vulnerability function is of critical importance in the insurance industry, only little data of actual events is available. However, for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event, extensive and relatively high-quality loss data has been collected. To gain the most possible insight from this and other available datasets, a loss data analysis tool has been developed in the course of this thesis. The tool is used to evaluate damage and loss data in conjunction with a corresponding ground motion footprint. It is not limited to earthquake loss events and can be used to analyze data from other perils, such as storm or flood. Using specifically created data interfaces, the results of this thesis will be integrated into a seismic risk assessment framework as used by a leading reinsurance company.